Copyrights 2004 by Optinet Inc. OPTION 2 OPTION 1 your solution skill known expert skillful knowledgeable persistant positive attitude cautious protected fathfull lucky OPTION 2 OPTION 1 Possible Loss life freedom basic needs security comfort satisfaction wealth recognition self fullfilment spiritual peace Possible Gain life freedom basic needs security comfort satisfaction wealth recognition self fullfilment spiritual peace Possible Loss life freedom basic needs security comfort satisfaction wealth recognition self fullfilment spiritual peace OPTION 2 solution option 2 do nothing wait collect information mild reply prompt reply agreesive reply seek help walk away ran away surrender Problem Solving Expert System This tool is a personal problem solving expert system. It is intended to guide you through the solution and the decision making process under uncertain conditions. To continue please begin in step 1. Confirm your decision with expert opinion. The first step is to make it clear in your mind what is your real problem. If you do not know what the problem is, you can not find a solution. Try to be as concise as possible using 2 words. Problem type and severity level to define the problem. For Example: Financial Threat, Medical Catastrophe or Job Insecurity. To continue choose your problem type and severity level and continue to Step 2. problem type medical personal financial legal employment investment family friendship learning severity level catastrophe major threat minor threat uncomfort Once your problem is defined you can focus on the solution. But first you must be creative in stating your solution options. For Example in a case on Medical Catastrophe there may be the following options: Medication or Operation. Or in case of Financial Collapse the options may be Bankruptcy or Reorganization. To continue choose your solution options 1 and 2 and continue to step 3. solution option 1 do nothing wait collect information mild reply prompt reply agreesive reply seek help walk away ran away surrender Possible Gain life freedom basic needs security comfort satisfaction wealth recognition self fullfilment spiritual peace Once the solution options are known we need to assess their outcome. We need to understand what will be the prize of success and what will be the penalty of failure. Typically the higher the potential gain the higher the damage in case of failure. To continue choose the potential outcome of each option and then continue to step 4. OPTION 1 Now it is the time to estimate your chances to succeed in your choice should you decide to take it. Your chances are typically based on many factors the least of which is pure luck. To continue please choose for each option the word that best describes your capability to be successful in choosing this option. Then, continue to step 5. your solution skill known expert skillful knowledgeable persistent positive attitude cautious protected faithfull lucky Now that we have assessed the odds to be successful by choosing either option we are in a position to calculate the expected gain of each option and to select the one with the highest expected value. Of course there is no guaranty for success when you choose the option with the highest expected value. All the decision does it increases the odds that you will end up with a better outcome should you make this decision. To get the calculated expected gain of each option and to see the Expert System recommendations please click on CALCULATE. Optinet Expert System Model assigns probability values to your success depending on your level of skill and attitude. It also assigns values to the possible gains or losses vased on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. It then calculates the expected gain using Von Neumann theory which is summed up as follows: Step 1 - Define the Problem Step 2- Create Solution Options Step 3- Assess the Possible Outcomes Step 4- Assess Your Odds to Succeed Step 5- Estimate the expected Gains Step 6- Optinet's Recommandation win loose win loose RETURN YALE HARVARD BERKELEY